CarbonTruth logoCarbonTruth
Team Pyragrid · IEEE ClimateChain 2026

Verify once.
Trusted everywhere.

CarbonTruth is the SSL certificate for climate data — a verification layer beneath the blockchain that turns raw satellite imagery into unforgeable, retire-once carbon credits. Not another marketplace. The trust the market is missing.

Try it yourself Evidence
3independent oracles
4tracks, one primitive
0double-counts possible
▶ Try the live demo GitHub repo ↗ ↺ Watch the intro
The trillion-dollar trust gap

The science is brutal on carbon markets

Peer-reviewed studies keep finding the same thing: most credits don't represent real carbon. The data going onto the ledger was never trustworthy in the first place.

94%

of forest-carbon credits were phantom

A 2023 study in Science of 89 million credits found only ~6% backed by real, additional carbon. The other 94% are tonnes someone paid to remove — still in the air.

West et al., Science 2023 · doi:10.1126/science.ade3535
19%

of REDD+ projects met their targets

A 2025 Science analysis of 52 REDD+ projects found just 19% delivered the emission reductions they claimed. Verification, not ledgers, is the bottleneck.

Tang et al., Science 2025 · doi:10.1126/science.adw4094
Why everyone else is solving the wrong half

A blockchain only proves a number didn't change — not that it was ever true

01 · THE TRAP

Blockchain makes bad data permanent

Put an unverified credit on-chain and all you've done is make a bad number immutable and tradeable. Transparency about garbage is still garbage.

02 · THE REAL GAP

The oracle problem

The hard part is getting a trustworthy measurement onto the chain in the first place. That's a verification problem, and it's where every registry fails.

03 · THE FIX

One primitive: the Verified Climate Claim

AI-verified from independent open data, anchored with an evidence hash, made globally unique by a geo-temporal fingerprint. Verify once, trust everywhere.

Your turn — you are the actor, not the audience

Run a carbon credit through its entire life

Pick a real project, set the claim, submit it to the oracle network, mint it, sell it, retire it, and try to forge the ledger. Every step is a real action you take — the full use-case, running in your browser.

carbontruth · you are the verifierpipeline live
↓ New here?
① Pick a project  ·  ② set your claim  ·  ③ submit → mint → trade → retire
USE CASESubmit claim
SEQUENCEOracles verify
SEQUENCEMint on chain
LIFECYCLETrade & retire

② Observe — Sentinel-2 NDVI

before
after
Fetching live Sentinel-2 scenes…

    ③ Estimate — additional CO₂e

    Carbon stock gained
    —
    Counterfactual baseline
    —
    Plot area
    —
    Net additional
    —

    ④ Verify — set your claim, then submit

    You are claiming—
    —
    confidence · gate 90%
    Drag the slider, then submit for verification
    🧑‍🌾
    You
    Developer
    🛰️
    Oracle
    Network
    📒
    Registry
    ⛓️
    Blockchain
    ⑤ VCC Registry & your holdings chain intact · 1 blocks
    swipe → to see owner & actions
    VCC IDProjecttCO₂eOwnerStatusActions
    No credits yet — set an honest claim and submit it to mint the first VCC.

    Everything here is the real logic — band math, inverse-variance fusion, SHA-256 fingerprinting, the double-count and retire-once invariants, chain verification, and ownership transfer — running live in your browser, with live Sentinel-2 scene discovery through a serverless function. The NDVI→biomass step is a trained neural network (6→32→16 MLP, R²≈0.98 on held-out data) calibrated on GEDI-style labels; satellite pixels are a bundled representative scene, not yet field-validated at this plot. The identical engine runs offline as pure Python — python app.py (the net ships as frozen weights, inference is dependency-free).

    Satellite → model → oracle → ledger

    Four stages, every one auditable

    01 · OBSERVE

    Open satellite optics

    Sentinel-2 red & near-infrared bands over the plot, before and after. We query Microsoft's free Planetary Computer for live scene IDs — no API key.

    NDVI = (B08 − B04) / (B08 + B04)
    02 · ESTIMATE

    Neural net → additional CO₂e

    A trained neural network maps spectral features (NDVI, SAVI, NIR…) to aboveground biomass, then to CO₂e. A counterfactual baseline means we only ever credit carbon that's genuinely additional.

    MLP(NDVI,SAVI,NIR…) → AGB · E = AGB·0.47·44⁄12
    03 · VERIFY

    Independent consensus

    Optical, GEDI lidar and Landsat archive are fused by inverse-variance weighting. Mint only if confidence clears the gate and k-of-n oracles agree.

    μ = Σwᵢmᵢ / Σwᵢ , wᵢ = 1/σᵢ² · V = 1 − |μ−c|/c ≥ θ
    04 · MINT

    Fingerprinted & chained

    A geo-temporal fingerprint makes each tonne globally unique — one token per fingerprint, so double-counting can't be expressed. Retire-once, forever.

    f = H(geohash‖date‖projectID‖k) · R ∩ A = ∅
    One primitive, every track

    Why this wins the hackathon

    Because CarbonTruth is a verification layer, not a marketplace, the same Verified Climate Claim works across all four ClimateChain tracks — and UN Article 6.4 now mandates exactly this kind of verification.

    🌳

    Carbon Markets

    Over-crediting caught before mint; every tonne backed by independent evidence.

    ⚡

    Renewable Energy

    The same receipt certifies clean-energy generation claims and RECs.

    📦

    Supply Chains

    Verified emissions claims flow across Scope-3 boundaries without double-counting.

    🛰️

    Climate Data

    Any sensor-backed environmental claim gets a portable, auditable trust stamp.

    $1.7B
    voluntary carbon market, 2024
    est. GMI
    $250B
    projected 2030 if integrity is restored
    Barclays projection
    $10–40B
    more conservative 2030 estimate
    MSCI projection

    Market figures are third-party projections shown for context, not revenue forecasts. CarbonTruth monetizes verification (≈ a dollar-fifty per credit at near-zero marginal cost), not the tonnes themselves.

    Built on the literature

    Evidence & methods

    Every claim on this page is traceable to peer-reviewed science or an open standard.

    [1]

    West, T. et al. (2023). Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation. Science. — Only ~6% of 89M credits backed by real carbon.

    [2]

    Tang, F. et al. (2025). Carbon integrity of REDD+ projects. Science. — 19% of 52 projects met their emission-reduction targets.

    [3]

    Chave, J. et al. (2014). Improved pantropical allometric models to estimate aboveground biomass. Global Change Biology. — The AGB equation in stage 2.

    [4]

    Data sources. Sentinel-2 L2A via Microsoft Planetary Computer (open STAC, no key); NASA GEDI spaceborne lidar; Landsat archive. IPCC carbon fraction CF = 0.47.

    planetarycomputer.microsoft.com · earthdata.nasa.gov/sensors/gedi
    Built with

    Open data, real cryptography, shipped

    No black boxes — every layer is something a reviewer can inspect, re-run, or verify for themselves.

    Python stdlib
    The verification engine — zero dependencies, runs with python app.py.
    Sentinel-2
    Optical imagery via Microsoft Planetary Computer (open STAC, no key).
    NASA GEDI + Landsat
    Independent lidar & archive oracles for multi-source consensus.
    SHA-256
    Hash-chained, tamper-evident ledger with geo-temporal fingerprints.
    Solidity EVM
    On-chain contract enforcing uniqueness + retire-once (CarbonTruthVCC.sol).
    Vercel
    Static hosting + the live /api/stac serverless function.
    Neural net scikit-learn
    A trained MLP maps Sentinel-2 reflectance → biomass (R²≈0.98); frozen weights, pure-Python inference.
    IPCC + Chave 2014
    Peer-reviewed carbon accounting & allometry — transparent, cited.